Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -120 UAPB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.4 (+3.6) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -3.7 (+2.3) | 134.0 (+6.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.2 (+2.8) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.7 (+3.3) | 131.1 (+8.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ALST 79 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 5, 2026 | UAPB 90 – 79 ALST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ALST 75 – 63 UAPB |
| Jan 7, 2025 | ALST 93 – 91 UAPB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UAPB 80 – 74 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-12 |
| Home | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Away | 1-8 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -18.0 (#344) | -19.9 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#334) | -2.44 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.49 (#339) | -3.89 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#345) | 0.379 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.