Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -163 MISS +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +2 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -3.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.0 (-5.0) | 137.3 (+32.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.3 (-4.3) | 138.1 (+31.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -3.5 (-5.5) | 139.0 (+31.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -3.6 (-5.6) | 138.7 (+31.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#60) | 8.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#72) | 0.93 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#71) | 1.42 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#83) | 0.524 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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