Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -188 UCF +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +7 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -4.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -4.8 (-11.8) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -3.3 (-10.3) | 131.9 (-8.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -5.6 (-12.6) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -5.4 (-12.4) | 134.5 (-11.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | UCF 88 – 75 TLSA |
| Feb 26, 2023 | UCF 68 – 49 TLSA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | UCF 96 – 52 TLSA |
| Mar 6, 2022 | TLSA 73 – 72 UCF |
| Feb 15, 2022 | UCF 76 – 67 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#100) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#64) | 0.97 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#75) | 1.50 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#92) | 0.530 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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