Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -600 PITT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -12.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -10.6 (-3.6) | 131.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -9.3 (-2.3) | 125.7 (+13.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -12.4 (-5.4) | 128.6 (+10.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -11.5 (-4.5) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 10-12 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#10) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#20) | 1.32 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#9) | 1.78 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#17) | 0.520 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.