Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +200 VT -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -7.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.9 (+1.9) | 134.1 (+21.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.8 (+2.8) | 131.5 (+24.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -6.6 (+2.6) | 133.6 (+22.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -7.4 (+3.4) | 133.9 (+22.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 15-7 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 9-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#148) | 11.6 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#155) | 2.42 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#145) | 3.11 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#197) | 0.611 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.