Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +130 UND -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UND -3.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -3.5 (+7.5) | 145.9 (+20.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -2.7 (+6.7) | 141.9 (+24.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -3.1 (+7.1) | 149.4 (+16.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -3.6 (+7.6) | 148.7 (+17.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-19 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 2-10 | 5-3 |
| Away | 0-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#338) | -9.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.79 (#349) | -1.88 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.18 (#347) | -2.74 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.323 (#347) | 0.417 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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