Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -333 NU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.7 (-1.7) | 135.0 (+10.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.2 (-2.2) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-13 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#26) | 7.6 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#24) | 1.17 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#15) | 2.13 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#27) | 0.495 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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