Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -800 NEB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -6.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.6 (+3.4) | 143.1 (-21.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -5.5 (+4.5) | 144.9 (-22.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.7 (+3.3) | 146.6 (-24.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.9 (+3.1) | 142.4 (-20.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 7-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#91) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#69) | -0.66 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#54) | -0.27 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#142) | 0.462 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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