Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -138 UNC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -0.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.7 (-5.7) | 144.5 (+33.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.0 (-4.0) | 139.6 (+38.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.2 (-5.2) | 144.8 (+33.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -1.6 (-5.6) | 144.3 (+33.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#67) | 10.2 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#78) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#62) | 2.56 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#114) | 0.588 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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