Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -275 MTST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -10.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -10.1 (-2.1) | 148.3 (+7.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -7.6 (+0.4) | 147.5 (+8.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -9.1 (-1.1) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -9.1 (-1.1) | 146.7 (+9.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-6 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-0 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#88) | -1.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#167) | 0.02 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#157) | -0.19 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#98) | 0.518 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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