Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -250 SDAK +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -5.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.4 (-13.4) | 154.6 (-34.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.4 (-12.4) | 150.5 (-30.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.4 (-13.4) | 155.3 (-35.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.1 (-13.1) | 154.5 (-34.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-7 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 7-2 |
| Away | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#108) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#94) | -0.47 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#111) | -0.52 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#79) | 0.475 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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