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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–13 on winners spread MAE 8.9 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.1 141.7 65% 60–69 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion -5.6 144.1 31% 87–67 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -13.1 158.8 12% 91–70 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky -5.2 123.1 32% 82–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas Southern +2.1 137.7 58% 75–77 ✓
Arizona @ Colorado +6.2 145.9 71% 79–82 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island +6.4 152.0 72% 75–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech +3.2 149.4 61% 80–82 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha +1.0 156.5 53% 75–73 ✗
Wright State @ UIC -15.1 137.5 8% 77–57 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +6.5 134.2 72% 72–69 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +4.1 150.1 65% 78–89 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +4.4 139.0 66% 80–74 ✗
Monmouth @ Manhattan -7.2 145.2 26% 71–69 ✓
California Baptist @ New Mexico State -1.0 147.9 46% 70–97 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -1.8 143.0 44% 77–56 ✓
UCLA @ USC +5.6 143.8 70% 48–66 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +6.9 123.9 73% 62–57 ✗
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +17.9 135.5 95% 64–81 ✓
Iowa @ Indiana -3.7 160.2 37% 65–67 ✗
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -1.2 146.7 46% 62–75 ✗
Cincinnati @ Tulane -2.1 133.2 42% 64–61 ✓
UMBC @ Stony Brook -2.2 131.1 42% 71–65 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +4.5 144.4 66% 53–66 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso -16.4 141.4 7% 57–74 ✗
High Point @ Hampton +1.0 139.9 54% 72–58 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield -4.3 129.9 35% 78–63 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +8.9 150.0 79% 72–84 ✓
Evansville @ Loyola Chicago +20.9 123.5 97% 58–69 ✓
Drexel @ Hofstra +1.4 136.9 55% 74–79 ✓
Georgetown @ Villanova +13.4 145.0 89% 74–84 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -6.5 147.8 28% 72–62 ✓
Temple @ Wichita State +8.9 143.4 79% 67–70 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa -2.2 138.3 42% 67–70 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +8.4 135.2 78% 69–68 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada -5.2 145.9 32% 62–73 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.