Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -1200 GTWN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -12.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -11.4 (-1.4) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.1 (-0.1) | 143.3 (+14.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.7 (-2.7) | 142.3 (+15.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -11.3 (-1.3) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-4 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#17) | 4.6 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#7) | 0.83 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#13) | 1.04 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#20) | 0.521 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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