Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -250 GRAM +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -5.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.2 (-8.2) | 137.7 (+3.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.8 (-7.8) | 137.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.8 (-7.8) | 140.0 (+1.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.0 (-8.0) | 137.0 (+4.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Home | 5-2 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#280) | -10.7 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#264) | -1.32 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#273) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#225) | 0.433 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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