Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -275 CBU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +27 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | CBU -0.5 (+27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CBU -0.5 (+27.5) | 144.0 (+23.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CBU -1.1 (+28.1) | 143.5 (+23.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CBU -0.5 (+27.5) | 146.1 (+20.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CBU -0.1 (+27.1) | 145.2 (+21.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | NMSU 66 – 61 CBU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | CBU 70 – 61 NMSU |
| Feb 4, 2022 | NMSU 68 – 57 CBU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | CBU 85 – 75 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 6-6 |
| Home | 3-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#272) | -3.6 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#338) | -1.41 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.37 (#338) | -1.70 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#343) | 0.410 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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