Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -600 CBU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CBU +10 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -3.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -1.7 (-11.7) | 141.2 (+18.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.8 (-10.8) | 140.4 (+19.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -1.5 (-11.5) | 140.0 (+20.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.6 (-11.6) | 142.8 (+17.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | NMSU 66 – 61 CBU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | CBU 70 – 61 NMSU |
| Feb 4, 2022 | NMSU 68 – 57 CBU |
| Feb 7, 2021 | NMSU 97 – 70 CBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 6-6 |
| Home | 3-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#224) | -4.7 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#320) | -1.66 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#324) | -1.93 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#340) | 0.406 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 21.8% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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