Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -700 CP +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -18.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -13.7 (+3.3) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -12.9 (+4.1) | 135.6 (+9.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -14.3 (+2.7) | 135.5 (+9.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -14.0 (+3.0) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CP 86 – 75 HAW |
| Jan 16, 2026 | HAW 86 – 66 CP |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CP 79 – 63 HAW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | HAW 68 – 55 CP |
| Feb 16, 2024 | HAW 80 – 51 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-10 | 4-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 59.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#162) | -15.2 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#204) | -2.04 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#194) | -2.81 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#239) | 0.365 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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