Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | IU +150 IOWA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -3.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.2 (+2.2) | 159.8 (-27.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.1 (+4.1) | 153.6 (-21.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -1.2 (+3.2) | 155.9 (-23.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.0 (+3.0) | 157.6 (-25.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 IU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | IOWA 85 – 60 IU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IU 74 – 68 IOWA |
| Mar 1, 2023 | IOWA 90 – 68 IU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IOWA 91 – 89 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#29) | 18.9 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#54) | 2.74 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#38) | 3.91 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#106) | 0.580 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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