Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | L-MD -110 LAF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -1.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.4 (+12.6) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -0.9 (+12.1) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.4 (+13.4) | 146.8 (-9.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.2 (+13.2) | 145.6 (-8.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Game Analysis
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