Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -125 INST +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.6 (+5.6) | 135.6 (+1.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.9 (+3.9) | 130.9 (+6.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -2.4 (+5.4) | 135.4 (+1.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.2 (+5.2) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#193) | 2.9 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#242) | 1.05 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#216) | 1.20 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#196) | 0.545 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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