Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -275 SDAK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -4.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.0 (+6.0) | 148.5 (+18.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -3.5 (+7.5) | 147.3 (+19.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.7 (+6.3) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.1 (+5.9) | 150.1 (+16.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-7 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 7-2 |
| Away | 4-2 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#118) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#132) | -0.03 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#145) | 0.02 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#101) | 0.489 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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