Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USC -175 UCLA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +18 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USC -6.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.0 (+12.0) | 141.6 (-27.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -4.2 (+13.8) | 137.8 (-23.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.6 (+12.4) | 140.1 (-26.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.5 (+12.5) | 139.7 (-25.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#16) | 11.3 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#30) | 2.46 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#22) | 3.19 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#14) | 0.609 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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