Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -110 RGV +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -2.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -2.6 (-0.6) | 141.0 (+11.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -2.6 (-0.6) | 136.8 (+15.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -2.6 (-0.6) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -2.4 (-0.4) | 141.6 (+10.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | TXSO 70 – 60 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 9-10 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 2-5 |
| Home | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#229) | -3.8 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#198) | -0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#230) | -0.01 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#165) | 0.500 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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