Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +120 UMBC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.2 (-4.8) | 131.7 (+4.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.0 (-5.0) | 130.1 (+5.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.4 (-4.6) | 131.4 (+4.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.9 (-5.1) | 132.6 (+3.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2022 | UMBC 95 – 84 STBK |
| Jan 17, 2022 | STBK 65 – 51 UMBC |
| Feb 8, 2021 | UMBC 60 – 48 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-14 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#218) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#241) | 0.40 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#224) | 0.38 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#207) | 0.510 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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