Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +11 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -3.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.7 (+8.3) | 149.4 (+29.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.0 (+9.0) | 149.0 (+30.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.1 (+8.9) | 150.4 (+28.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.4 (+8.6) | 150.3 (+28.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2022 | STBK 65 – 51 UMBC |
| Feb 8, 2021 | UMBC 60 – 48 STBK |
| Feb 7, 2021 | UMBC 71 – 65 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#233) | -4.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#243) | -0.15 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#253) | -0.34 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.514 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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