Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +150 UMBC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +12 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -2.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.4 (-10.6) | 130.4 (-22.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.0 (-10.0) | 130.0 (-22.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.4 (-9.6) | 130.2 (-22.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.0 (-10.0) | 132.1 (-24.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2022 | UMBC 95 – 84 STBK |
| Jan 17, 2022 | STBK 65 – 51 UMBC |
| Feb 7, 2021 | UMBC 71 – 65 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-14 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#224) | 1.7 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#248) | 0.48 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#237) | 0.46 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#209) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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