Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HOF -163 DREX +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -1.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -2.4 (+2.6) | 139.2 (+13.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -1.5 (+3.5) | 133.9 (+19.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -1.7 (+3.3) | 136.8 (+16.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -1.3 (+3.7) | 139.6 (+13.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HOF 62 – 51 DREX |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOF 70 – 67 DREX |
| Jan 20, 2025 | DREX 60 – 55 HOF |
| Feb 23, 2024 | HOF 69 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 16, 2024 | DREX 79 – 77 HOF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-10 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 4-5 |
| Home | 7-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#151) | 1.9 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#130) | 0.09 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#146) | 0.09 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#77) | 0.495 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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