Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +700 DRKE -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -15.7 (+32.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -12.4 (+29.4) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -11.6 (+28.6) | 140.1 (-9.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -11.0 (+28.0) | 143.1 (-12.1) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -12.0 (+29.0) | 144.1 (-13.1) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#241) | 13.5 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#266) | 3.98 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#259) | 5.06 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#260) | 0.564 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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