Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ILST +250 MOST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -6.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.0 (-5.0) | 143.7 (-9.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.8 (-4.2) | 142.3 (-8.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -5.0 (-5.0) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.3 (-5.7) | 143.1 (-9.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | 4.1 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#281) | 0.95 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#262) | 1.10 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#271) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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