Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | BELL -360 JAX +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | BELL -10.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BELL -9.9 (+5.1) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BELL -8.2 (+6.8) | 133.4 (-6.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -10.7 (+4.3) | 137.3 (-10.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BELL -9.5 (+5.5) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BELL 82 – 79 JAX |
| Jan 23, 2026 | BELL 77 – 70 JAX |
| Feb 9, 2025 | JAX 73 – 64 BELL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | JAX 74 – 59 BELL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BELL 69 – 63 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 11-13 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#182) | -8.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#196) | -1.81 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#186) | -2.07 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#208) | 0.388 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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