Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -125 MD +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +5 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -3.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-43.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -3.5 (+1.5) | 144.7 (-39.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -3.0 (+2.0) | 139.0 (-34.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -3.6 (+1.4) | 144.6 (-39.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -3.7 (+1.3) | 143.8 (-38.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#35) | 11.3 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#48) | 2.26 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#33) | 2.98 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#60) | 0.599 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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