Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | FOR +225 LAS -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -6.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -7.2 (+15.2) | 126.6 (+17.4) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -5.0 (+13.0) | 127.6 (+16.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -6.4 (+14.4) | 129.1 (+14.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -7.1 (+15.1) | 128.2 (+15.8) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-12 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 6-11 |
| Home | 2-5 | 6-3 |
| Away | 0-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 51.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#308) | -0.4 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#299) | 0.34 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.12 (#326) | 0.34 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#310) | 0.510 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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