Betting Lines
| Spread | EIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | EIU -125 TNST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EIU +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | EIU -2.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EIU -2.0 (+12.0) | 134.1 (+23.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EIU -2.9 (+11.1) | 135.3 (+22.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EIU -2.1 (+11.9) | 137.7 (+20.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EIU -2.1 (+11.9) | 133.9 (+24.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | TNST 77 – 68 EIU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EIU 74 – 70 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TNST 66 – 49 EIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TNST 84 – 65 EIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TNST 78 – 73 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-18 | 4-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#311) | -10.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#312) | -3.05 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#317) | -3.52 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#315) | 0.349 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EIU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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