Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +333 TOL -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -9.6 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.2 (+22.2) | 148.3 (-0.3) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.1 (+22.1) | 147.4 (+0.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.8 (+22.8) | 148.5 (-0.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.4 (+22.4) | 151.8 (-3.8) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 15-4 |
| Home | 7-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#198) | 10.0 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#237) | 1.92 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#224) | 2.81 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#194) | 0.594 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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