Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -120 SJU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +11 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -2.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.9 (-12.9) | 148.5 (+24.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.7 (-12.7) | 152.1 (+20.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.0 (-13.0) | 153.7 (+19.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.1 (-13.1) | 150.0 (+23.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 10-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#80) | 7.6 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#70) | 1.66 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#72) | 2.19 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#101) | 0.557 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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