Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -110 INST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -1.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.3 (-2.7) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.7 (-3.3) | 133.6 (-15.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.5 (-2.5) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.4 (-2.6) | 138.8 (-20.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#190) | 2.8 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#234) | 0.87 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#211) | 0.95 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#180) | 0.543 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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