Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN +188 JKST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -4.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -3.6 (-4.4) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -1.6 (-6.4) | 132.5 (+7.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -3.2 (-4.8) | 138.9 (+1.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -3.4 (-4.6) | 137.9 (+2.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-13 | 12-6 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 11-0 |
| Home | 4-3 | 6-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#340) | -8.8 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#306) | -0.97 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#321) | -1.63 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#255) | 0.435 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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