Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +150 UL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UL -3.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.0 (+9.0) | 148.0 (+12.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.6 (+6.6) | 146.6 (+13.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.6 (+7.6) | 149.7 (+10.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.7 (+8.7) | 149.4 (+10.6) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARST 81 – 58 UL |
| Feb 20, 2026 | ARST 79 – 62 UL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | ARST 83 – 64 UL |
| Jan 17, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ARST 89 – 62 UL |
Game Analysis
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