Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +800 DRKE -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -17.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -13.5 (+10.5) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -13.1 (+10.1) | 138.0 (+19.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -12.2 (+9.2) | 140.2 (+16.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -13.0 (+10.0) | 141.5 (+15.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.8 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#254) | 14.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#261) | 3.85 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#258) | 4.88 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#272) | 0.575 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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