Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -163 WIS +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -6.3 (+8.7) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.3 (+9.7) | 134.8 (+0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.5 (+8.5) | 140.1 (-5.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.7 (+8.3) | 138.5 (-3.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 14.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#11) | 2.68 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#7) | 3.84 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#25) | 0.584 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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