Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BC +220 NCSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +16 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -2.3 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -1.1 (-14.9) | 150.8 (-4.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.5 (-15.5) | 149.6 (-3.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.5 (-13.5) | 151.3 (-5.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.9 (-15.1) | 152.5 (-6.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | NCSU 79 – 71 BC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NCSU 81 – 70 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NCSU 92 – 62 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 9-8 |
| Home | 3-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 0-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 7.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#176) | 0.52 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#147) | 0.84 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#221) | 0.493 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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