Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -750 CP +534 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -18.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -13.4 (+2.6) | 131.9 (+20.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -13.1 (+2.9) | 132.4 (+19.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -13.8 (+2.2) | 131.5 (+20.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -13.6 (+2.4) | 132.4 (+19.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | CP 86 – 75 HAW |
| Jan 16, 2026 | HAW 86 – 66 CP |
| Feb 7, 2025 | CP 79 – 63 HAW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | HAW 68 – 55 CP |
| Feb 16, 2024 | HAW 80 – 51 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-10 | 4-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 59.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | -15.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#201) | -1.91 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#188) | -2.65 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#196) | 0.368 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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