Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +150 ALA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -2.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -0.3 (+3.3) | 151.4 (-18.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.5 (+3.5) | 152.0 (-19.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.4 (+3.4) | 155.0 (-22.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -0.0 (+3.0) | 152.2 (-19.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ALA 90 – 64 MIZ |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MIZ 110 – 98 ALA |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ALA 93 – 75 MIZ |
| Mar 11, 2023 | ALA 72 – 61 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2023 | ALA 85 – 64 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 26-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#33) | 17.8 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#13) | 2.76 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#20) | 3.63 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#7) | 0.640 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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