Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -1200 AF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -13.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.6 (-0.6) | 133.1 (-7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -11.1 (-1.1) | 128.0 (-2.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -10.5 (-0.5) | 129.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -11.0 (-1.0) | 133.8 (-7.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#175) | -11.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#195) | -0.96 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#192) | -1.62 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#186) | 0.448 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 24.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 4.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 14.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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