Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO +163 JXST -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +12 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | JXST -3.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -2.4 (-9.6) | 142.2 (-22.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -3.0 (-9.0) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -2.8 (-9.2) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -2.8 (-9.2) | 142.5 (-22.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#284) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#303) | -0.06 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#307) | -0.29 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#306) | 0.510 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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