Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -300 M-OH +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -9.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -8.7 (+15.3) | 150.2 (+1.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -7.3 (+16.7) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.6 (+15.4) | 150.1 (+1.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -9.3 (+14.7) | 150.6 (+1.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 9-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#89) | -0.6 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#175) | -0.46 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#158) | -0.43 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#171) | 0.462 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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