What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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72–33 on winners spread MAE 8.3 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Michigan State -1.0 136.4 51% 55–54 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +13.0 144.9 84% 74–72 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.0 145.1 63% 89–96 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +3.7 135.5 69% 44–58 ✓
Stetson @ North Alabama +1.0 143.1 45% 86–77 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +3.9 140.7 73% 65–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +2.4 136.1 50% 77–72 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.7 145.2 52% 64–66 ✗
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -2.3 139.8 36% 77–64 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.6 143.5 35% 68–55 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion +7.4 134.3 74% 67–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -7.5 138.7 23% 77–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside — — — 88–83 —
Southern Miss @ UAB +17.0 130.6 89% 60–72 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +18.4 133.1 91% 69–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City +0.0 126.6 33% 66–64 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +5.5 143.3 71% 64–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley -0.4 151.7 58% 50–77 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -5.3 138.3 23% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton +6.9 153.8 64% 82–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +9.4 142.9 78% 72–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +12.5 152.8 83% 77–83 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +9.0 133.7 84% 69–71 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -14.5 132.7 14% 82–46 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +14.6 146.9 87% 64–79 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +8.1 147.5 78% 89–101 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson +7.8 125.9 77% 89–78 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +14.3 131.4 88% 49–62 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +12.7 157.9 86% 79–97 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +0.9 140.3 55% 79–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +2.0 135.0 61% 68–79 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +12.7 139.5 85% 63–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason -3.1 141.0 35% 77–57 ✓
Miami @ NC State +8.9 140.3 80% 64–59 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn -2.5 151.6 39% 94–90 ✓
Hartford @ UMass Lowell +0.1 131.0 47% 62–71 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +0.9 136.8 63% 56–67 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.7 142.2 54% 72–70 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +10.9 148.9 86% 65–75 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +1.3 127.5 51% 69–63 ✗
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt -2.4 138.9 34% 84–81 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -1.0 154.2 54% 87–92 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +8.8 131.1 83% 58–70 ✓
Drexel @ Charleston -2.2 130.1 44% 60–61 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -11.7 128.3 17% 68–54 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College -6.9 136.5 23% 61–49 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh — — — 69–61 —
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -9.4 144.9 37% 59–71 ✗
Morgan State @ Norfolk State -0.5 135.9 40% 78–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -3.2 151.8 38% 76–68 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville +4.4 135.1 66% 48–57 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -1.9 143.9 44% 81–68 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +5.4 143.0 74% 64–80 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +6.6 139.5 75% 83–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +13.5 121.9 88% 45–48 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -3.2 136.3 33% 76–60 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +1.0 131.0 57% 69–54 ✗
Maine @ NJIT +4.5 130.7 72% 54–63 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary +2.7 128.2 62% 62–67 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado -0.3 139.4 45% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -1.9 130.9 42% 76–70 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +11.6 142.8 86% 67–83 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -13.9 144.2 16% 67–49 ✓
Washington @ California +4.1 134.1 74% 78–84 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross — — — 83–68 —
Youngstown State @ Wright State +12.9 143.3 84% 55–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Hampton -2.0 145.4 44% 71–73 ✗
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +6.6 141.0 77% 69–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +2.8 148.2 63% 65–71 ✓
Georgia @ Arkansas +8.4 155.8 82% 69–99 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +15.8 127.4 89% 50–71 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State -8.7 134.9 19% 91–64 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield -10.1 134.9 22% 74–58 ✓
UConn @ Butler -7.4 128.9 24% 72–60 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +7.1 136.1 74% 45–42 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +8.4 145.4 86% 80–83 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +7.6 134.0 74% 55–66 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +5.8 145.7 78% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell — — — 83–60 —
Jacksonville State @ Morehead State -1.8 128.6 42% 55–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +4.6 134.1 70% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -7.4 138.7 23% 69–77 ✗
Western Michigan @ Kent State +11.4 137.7 84% 54–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +5.6 143.4 75% 59–63 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -5.9 154.7 24% 93–65 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +2.9 138.4 61% 60–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese -1.1 152.6 33% 78–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +8.5 143.4 77% 76–58 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -0.9 147.4 57% 55–88 ✗
Oakland @ Green Bay +3.1 155.1 64% 78–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +16.0 149.1 90% 69–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois +4.0 143.4 55% 74–71 ✗
Radford @ Charleston Southern -5.3 129.3 28% 79–64 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +13.5 133.3 85% 47–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +2.3 136.0 54% 65–58 ✗
Sam Houston @ Central Arkansas +0.4 151.5 36% 91–80 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.7 145.8 53% 78–76 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -2.4 139.5 37% 75–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +17.0 129.9 89% 58–62 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.5 145.5 36% 56–67 ✗
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +1.9 139.4 59% 48–45 ✗
Ball State @ Buffalo +7.7 151.2 76% 69–86 ✓
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +2.5 143.0 62% 64–67 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +7.6 138.9 79% 67–87 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University — — — 86–79 —
Campbell @ Longwood +0.7 134.8 56% 64–58 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +3.7 140.4 70% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State -4.4 140.8 31% 70–54 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +4.5 139.0 75% 82–91 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +3.9 134.7 57% 61–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.