Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -2.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.7 (-3.3) | 137.4 (+14.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -0.5 (-3.5) | 135.9 (+16.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -1.0 (-3.0) | 136.1 (+15.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -1.4 (-2.6) | 138.1 (+13.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Game Analysis
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