Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -110 USF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -4.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -2.8 (-8.8) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -1.3 (-7.3) | 127.5 (+4.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -2.7 (-8.7) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -2.6 (-8.6) | 130.8 (+1.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#121) | 1.7 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#77) | 0.97 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#82) | 1.46 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#43) | 0.520 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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