Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | TCU +600 BAY -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +18 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -16.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -11.1 (-6.9) | 147.4 (-31.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -13.9 (-4.1) | 144.2 (-28.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -12.6 (-5.4) | 148.0 (-32.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -12.5 (-5.5) | 146.7 (-30.7) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-1 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-6 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#113) | 23.1 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#37) | 4.17 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#60) | 6.69 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.613 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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